Trump 2.0

What will a Trump second presidency mean for the UK and Europe?

The answer is that we will not truly know until his term in office is over. He is likely to be as unpredictable as before. This will keep America's enemies guessing; it will also keep America's allies guessing too. Unfortunately, the new administration will likely view friends and foes with differing degrees of suspicion.

Any foreign policy positions are likely to be drafted in terms of Trump's personal interests and animosities. It will be America first, but Trump ahead of that. On the plus side, the EU will finally have to take defence spending seriously. This may help stimulate the EU to enter an economic recovery. For the UK, any future trade negotiations with the EU will directly or indirectly include reference to the UK's defence spending and the comfort blanket this can provide to Europe.

The Trump administration will be as hostile to the renewable energy industry as they have promised. This presents a huge four-year window of opportunity for the UK and the EU to invest heavily in green energy products and infrastructure. (China will continue investing heavily in green energy, but this will be more for their domestic market than export – particularly if they are hit with further US import tariffs. However, both the UK and the EU will need to resist China using their markets to dump unsold goods that were originally destined for the US market.)

From a business perspective, renewable energy is the definition of self-reliance for the UK, so the UK government must continue to push ahead aggressively, and politely ignore the noise from the US. There is unlikely to be any "drill baby drill" policy in the UK simply because oil reserves are dwindling.

The UK and EU must learn or re-learn the ability to make supportive noises towards the Trump administration and then proceed to do their own thing; this is, after all, the Trump method of operating.

After years of uncertainty, falling living standards and dwindling economic reach in the US, UK and the EU, we should prepare for more of the same. Living standards have fallen away since the 2008 financial crash. The only way out of this is by investing in renewable energy, infrastructure and improving voters' lives. The UK will need to turn to its closest geographic and political allies as the US enters another period of inward-looking absorption.